I think we are all missing something here. We're trying to predict the future using what we know and see today and it doesn't work like that.
Let's face it, right now, NOBODY has THE edge on what the future will bring to us (end users as well as IT people). If you think Gates knows the future, fine. Enjoy your time jumping for joy but he's not perfect (remember BOB?) and right now, I think that Microsoft can't copy -- oops I meant embrace and extend enough of what's going on and manage their own backyard too.
Let's take a cold look at the future where convergence will change EVERYTHING. You want to keep yourself chained to your fat client PC fine, I'd rather learn something new and try some alternatives to this "ball and chain" I use EVERYDAY. Please don't tell me that we're all crazy just because we don't bow at the MSFT altar with high regard. Frankly I don't care whether MSFT dies or lives -- I just want to have a choice!
If you think PDAs and Web-enabled appliances won't make a dent in the PC world, you are deluded. I'm already seeing end-users (the general public) heading for WebTV instead of fat PCs and their headaches.
They all claim the same thing, it's easy to use! I can't wait until AOL rolls out AOLTV settop boxes with broadband access (or even when Digital TV access hits the airwaves). These Java-based appliances will make it so easy to do what AOL has mastered that people won't even look twice at entry level PCs. They won't need them!
You know who will win this battle for the end-user??
The company who develops a settop box (something like a NetPC) which has some of the similiar characteristics of current PCs whereby one can upgrade its components. These components would be based on something like the PC Cardbus with small self-contained components.
The OS would be just that, small footprint program easily updated via the internet with no bells and whistles. It will handle the components and other "housekeeping" chores but that's it.
If you want the bells and whistles, you can download those too! Just point and click. All of the information regarding your "device" would be maintained by a centralized managed source (a la Z.E.N. Works).
Your access to all things would be managed by a centralized managed directory (a la NDS) which together with SmartLogic agents would offer you your news, sports, entertainment etc right to your TV.
The information coming to you will be handled by a webaccess accelerator like FastCache (in BorderManger). Security will also be handled by this product...
Can you see where I'm going?
What we are commenting about are things as they were designed and built to work in today's world and in the near future. We can try and guess on the future but we are only guessing! Imagination is a wonderous tool and right now, I'm betting that Dr. Schmidt has enough of it to get Novell to where it needs to be.
Let's hope that the rest of the industry isn't too preoccupied by it's battle to preserve it's current marketshare in this or that to do some thinking itself! Everyone talks about the next Killer App but I'm thinking what about the next Killer Idea.
If you want more information on AOL TV, let me know. I have some info I need to organize to make my point clear but it revolves around some press announcements and some Beta info I have come across not to mention John C Dvoraks article on Digital TV and it's internet implications.
While I'm a staunch supporter of Novell and truly believe in it's products, I'm also open minded enough to search out more information.
Thanks for letting me hop on the soapbox --
Peter |
