Some of the biggest mistakes I have ever made investing stemmed from overestimating the collective intelligence of the investing community. This includes analysts, money managers, individual investors, brokers, commentators, and so-called "experts".
Qualcomm is not an easy story to grasp. I can't call a client and say "I think it is time to buy some Qualcomm" and then go golfing. People -- analysts, institutional managers, et al, like simple things, with some exceptions. The story on Qualcomm is f***ing rocket science compared to say, Coke. I have explained the story enough times to clients to know that it is not an easy one to grasp. ("How can they be making more money when their market share is declining?") It involves multiple lines of business, a complex technology, and a stock chart that looks like a sine wave for the last three years. This does not lend itself to gung-ho "Gotta buy Microsoft" core-holding type attitudes.
But once someone grasps the story, and sees the potential stemming from it, they become like the rest of us -- borderline zealots.
Eventually, the momentum will be overwhelming and everyone will jump on the bandwagon be they analysts, money managers, brokers, whatever. Q will trade at a multiple twice its growth rate, just like the rest of the tech heavies. Several of my clients will retire and I'll take one step closer to complete financial independence.
The Day of Reckoning is near.
mmeggs |
