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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.29-3.3%3:59 PM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7435)12/18/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Katherine,

From the following statement, I suspect that there may be times when you're mathematically challenged. ;-)

If the BtB is below 1, the industry is shrinking.

e.g. If next month's BtB was 0.75, would you automatically make the above statement. What if that BtB was the result of $3B book and $4B Billings.

Personally, I don't think any conclusions can be reliably made from a 3 month seasonally adjusted rolling average which will be adjusted as more information is reported during at least the next 2 months.

However, it's safe to observe that both Bookings and Billings have resumed their uptrend.

A BtB below one means backlog is being consumed. A BTB above one means that Backlog is being increased and may also mean that lead times are lengthening (if it stays sufficiently above 1 long enough).

FWIW,
Ian.
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