CLINTON'S STRATEGIC MISTAKE
By DICK MORRIS
IN the world of Washington, up means down. It is now clear that,
the more likely it looks that the Senate would acquit Bill Clinton,
the more likely the House is to to impeach him.
When the fate of Clinton's presidency hung in the balance
during the elections of 1998, impeachment and removal were
one and the same process - voters either wanted him out or did
not. But now that the Senate has a safe 45-vote Democratic
minority to block the two-thirds vote needed to convict Clinton
and throw him out, the character of the House vote on
impeachment has changed. No longer is a House vote the first
step in removing a president; instead, impeachment has
become a stronger form of censure.
The president never figured it would come to this. Relying on a
strong Democratic showing in the Congressional elections and
his continued popularity in the polls, he dismissed
impeachment from his horizon. He failed to realize that, with a
Senate acquittal seemingly certain, the public would be
apathetic about the possibility of a House impeachment vote.
Because nobody believes Clinton will be leaving office before
Jan. 21, 2001, the public won't get mad at Republicans for
voting for impeachment and, likewise, Republicans have no
reason to risk the wrath of their political base by opposing
impeachment.
Clinton waited too long to focus on the fact that impeachment -
even without conviction - is something he does not want to
happen. He really, really, really doesn't want to be the second
president ever to be impeached. I-M-P-E-A-C-H-E-D is not the
word he wants in the history books next to his name. He doesn't
want every schoolboy and -girl to remember him, through all
eternity, for his impeachment.
Clinton realizes that the only way to avoid impeachment is to
confess that he lied - not misled or left out, not was vague or
ambiguous - but that he lied, and to ask for forgiveness. Why
hasn't he? Because he is scared to death of a criminal trial
after he leaves office.
While the eyes of the nation are riveted on the floor of the
House of Representatives to see if Bill Clinton will be
impeached, the president is focused on an imaginary
courtroom in the year 2001, where he sees himself on trial for
the crime of perjury. Being the lawyer that he is, he thinks that to
confess now is to put his neck in the noose later. He is terrified
that Kenneth Starr already has a sealed indictment waiting for
him when he steps into the helicopter to fly to Arkansas after
leaving office.
If Clinton seriously wants to avoid impeachment, he has to go
back to one of his basic rules of politics - win one election at a
time. Deal with the criminal situation when the time comes, not
now. For now, keep your eye on the ball - averting
impeachment.
But Clinton is crazy if he thinks a confession now will land him
in jail later. No jury is going to convict a former president and,
even if they do, President Al Gore - or even President George
W. Bush - will be there to pardon him. In any event, a
confession isn't going to make any difference anyway.
Polls show that 90 percent of America thinks Clinton lied. If
Clinton makes one more confession-less apology, it will be 100
percent. Somehow voters find it hard to believe that oral sex
isn't sex, that alone doesn't mean alone, and that he can't
remember any of the 24 gifts he gave Monica or any of the 40
gifts she gave him.
Until now, Clinton's strategy for avoiding impeachment has
been ridiculous. Following the counsel of a staff that doesn't
know him well enough to confront him, he flies off to Israel to
show that he is too busy with the work of being president to be
bothered by the banalities of impeachment. He focuses on
winning public opinion when it is the Congress that matters.
There is no looming election in which the public can save
Clinton.
His tactics are classic Hillary - don't give an inch and pretend
that all is well. But all is not well; yet, instead of remorse, Clinton
conveys an arrogant disdain for the process he leaves behind.
It is this very arrogance that has enraged the Republican
moderates and assured that he will be impeached.
Until Clinton confesses, he won't be forgiven and he will be
impeached. That's how it works. If you don't make it clear that
you understand what it is you did that was wrong, you don't get
forgiven. Clinton needs to rely on the grace, mercy and wisdom
of a handful of GOP congressmen. He needs to call them to the
White House, spell out his perjury, admit it in public and ask for
forgiveness.
But Clinton isn't dumb. He knows all this. So why hasn't he
confessed? I wonder if something else lurks behind the facade
of innocence he maintains on the outside and the concern over
criminal charges he maintains on the inside.
From his first teen-age days, Bill Clinton has always used lying
to get out of the trouble into which his libido landed him. Denial
and deceit have become his second nature where sex is
concerned. Now he finds that he had to - after Monica's dress -
admit the sex. But he still can't admit the lying. It would be like
parting with an old friend and a proven lifelong strategy to admit
the truth. He is having psychological trouble looking honestly in
the mirror.
Now he's got a simple choice: Face the truth, or face
impeachment. |
