Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 151.06

-1.5%

1:28 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (7436)	12/18/1998 6:38:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (4) of 10921

>> From the following statement, I suspect that there may be times when you're mathematically challenged. ;-)<< Not many, actually. >> If the BtB is below 1, the industry is shrinking. e.g. If next month's BtB was 0.75, would you automatically make the above statement. What if that BtB was the result of $3B book and $4B Billings.<< A BtB below 1 means that more shipments (old orders) occurred than bookings (new orders). If new orders are less than old orders, then future revenue expectations are less than current actual revenue. That sounds like shrinkage to me. If the BtB next month were 0.75 based on $3B book and $4B bill, I would suspect that someone had fudged the numbers. I doubt that the total backlog of the entire industry is $4B at this point. But, even if those numbers were real, they would still mean that there were more old orders than new orders. Katherine

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