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You can compare it to politics if you want (and I admit I did it too), but personally, I'm more interested in making money, and that means looking at how Wall Street responds to industry news. For people who want to get into this sector, it is already late, except for the small caps, but if you wait until the BtB is >1, you will be waaaaay too late. The last time a book-to-bill >1 was reported after a downturn was January 16, 1997. At that time, AMAT was already up 166% from its July 24, 1996 low. Right now AMAT is "only" 103% above its October 8th low. If the current rate of improvement in BtB continued at a linear rate, it would be >1 in two months, and if AMAT behaved like it did in '96, it would be up to 59 1/2 at that time. Wow, that's a scary thought! |
