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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Compadre who wrote (2291)	12/18/1998 8:46:00 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Why did AMAT raise estimates now rather than right after last quarter's earnings? I'd say that's obvious from comments from Intel and capital goods companies like Cymer, even Boeing. All have said that they have no more than 30 days of visibility to their future revenues. More than 30 days out any existing orders can be abruptly cancelled or huge new orders can be added. Not many businesses are willing to commit to far into the future in this environment. The slow-down in Asia etc is part of the problem, as is credit availability, but the world economy is basically too unsettled right now for people to make firm major spending plans. Hence earnings surprises up or down for capital goods companies.

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