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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: Jay Lowe who wrote (6050)	12/18/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (3) of 27311

P/E Estimate 20 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Laptops (M) 13.7 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 % employing LiP 0 0 5.00% 10% 30% 50% 50% 50% 50% LiP Laptops (M) - - 0.75 1.60 5.10 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.00 LiP Add-on Packs (M) - - 0.38 0.80 2.55 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.00 Total Laptop LiP Batts (M) - - 1.13 2.40 7.65 13.50 14.25 15.00 15.00 Laptop Batt Price $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 Margin 25% 25% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% Laptop Batt Unit Profit $19 $19 $19 $18 $17 $17 $16 $15 $14 Laptop Revenue (M$) $ - $ - $21.09 $43.20 $131.96 $222.75 $224.44 $225.00 $213.75 VLNC Market Share 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% VLNC Profit (M$) $ - $ - $ 4.22 $ 8.64 $ 26.39 $ 44.55 $ 44.89 $ 45.00 $ 42.75 VLNC Shares (M) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 VLNC Profit/Share $ - $ - $ 0.21 $ 0.43 $ 1.32 $ 2.23 $ 2.24 $ 2.25 $ 2.14 VLNC Share Price (Lap) $ - $ - $ 4.22 $ 8.64 $ 26.39 $ 44.55 $ 44.89 $ 45.00 $ 42.75 Cell Phones (M) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 % employing LiP 0 0 5.00% 10% 30% 50% 50% 50% 50% LiP Phones (M) - - 5.00 10.00 30.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 LiP Add-on Packs (M) - - 2.50 5.00 15.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 Total Phone LiP Batts (M) - - 7.50 15.00 45.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 CellPhone Batt Price $20.00 $20.00 $20.00 $20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 $ 20.00 Margin 25% 25% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% CellPhone Batt Profit $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 4.80 $ 4.60 $ 4.40 $ 4.20 $ 4.00 $ 3.80 Phone Revenue(M$) $ - $ - $37.50 $72.00 $207.00 $330.00 $315.00 $300.00 $285.00 VLNC Market Share 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% VLNC Profit (M$) $ - $ - $ 7.50 $14.40 $ 41.40 $ 66.00 $ 63.00 $ 60.00 $ 57.00 VLNC Shares (M) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 VLNC Profit/Share $ - $ - $ 0.38 $ 0.72 $ 2.07 $ 3.30 $ 3.15 $ 3.00 $ 2.85 VLNC Share Price (Cell) $ - $ - $ 7.50 $14.40 $ 41.40 $ 66.00 $ 63.00 $ 60.00 $ 57.00 Total VLNC Share Price $ - $ - $11.72 $23.04 $ 67.79 $110.55 $107.89 $105.00 $ 99.75

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