>> 20% of 15 mln laptops amounts to 3 mln per year
Well, yes, but my model's SWAGs asserts that only 5% of 15M laptops (750K) will be shipped with LiPoly (i.e., that only, say, 5 of 20 vendors will adopt, and only for new models released in 99 ... and that only late 99) ... these may indeed be the leading sellers, but still, it's a stretch to see a high adoption number in 99. That leaves aside the idea of add-on battery packs and add-on pack sales, which I estimated as 50% of 5% of laptops in 99.
I don't mean to say that VLNC might not have a higher share price, since they are apt to get a high PE and forward-looking valuation given the growth picture.
I'm having a hard time seeing how 3 mln batts will get into the field in 99 ... 1 mln seems achievable ... 3 mln, hmm ... that picture could, however, change very quickly if laptop vendor all line up to adopt right off the bat, which could happen ... they've moved fast on other new technologies ... and this is a VERY important feature.
I don't have any meat to the cost-side of the model ... i just hid the cost picture in my margin guesses ... very vulnerable there. |
