Lisa,
Today's (friday's) action was certainly not what i had in mind, and the scenario i was looking for got blown to pieces. But it could still be pieced together with a reversal day on Monday, considering the expiration could have unduly influenced market action. Otherwise, we could be looking at a real monster here (of an upmove), especially if we break into new highs on the major indices.
It appears as though last Tuesday and Wednesday's bottoming action resulted in a semi double bottom pattern with projections up to 1210 on the Mar S&P (1198 SPX), and thus far, price action is confirming that this pattern is in play. More often than not on this type of pattern, a healthy jerk down occurs before the target is met, and a 2nd bottoming pattern is formed that projects to the same area. That has not happened yet, and that COULD come early next week. If the target is met before a shake down occurs, then we should see a sharp reaction down from that area. This assumes of course that the market can break into new highs.
If we do break into new highs, then I will implement a revised count that would have us completing only the 1st wave of a 5 wave move on Nov.27th (begun on 10/9). The following action from 11/27 to 12/15 would be labeled wave 2, and from 12/15, we would have begun a powerful 3rd wave up that could lift us to the moon (exact number TBD later).
I shedded a portion of shorts on the close, and will come out of the rest on 1)next substantial dip if 1194 is broken on SPX, or 2)Next Wed. or Thurs and hopefully down in the 1150 area or lower. If 1194 is broken, I will look to go long the market on the following dip.
Sorry my streak had to end with you, but some things just never change. <ggg>
David |
