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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.32-3.3%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7442)12/19/1998 3:57:00 AM
From: Clarksterh  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Katherine - If new orders are less than old orders, then future revenue expectations are less than current actual revenue. That sounds like shrinkage to me.

This is of course true if orders are static, or for lack of any information, you must assume that they are static. But if you know that orders are not static, and are actually sloping upward, then this is an untrue statement. That is the point we are trying to make - your assumption is true only if you throw out some of the information. Thus the real question is how reliable is that information that you are throwing away (the slope of orders). If it is unreliable as a predictor of future orders then you are correct. OTOH, if it is accurate, then you are wrong. We believe the latter, you believe the former.

Clark
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