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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (39999)	12/19/1998 3:58:00 AM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (2) of 132070

>>It is hard to describe what is about to happen to investors in this area, but you hope you can make them realize that it will not be fun.<< Gee MB, you don't give up easily. Isn't it time to admit you have been wrong about MU and some other recent tech stock put candidates? Pardon me for intruding but in retrospect it seems that your profitability is coming from trading the normal downside volatility that occurs after tech stocks double in a short period of time. Over the past 2 years, your put target prices have kept increasing on the likes of MU, GTW, IBM. (Of course your target would have to because these stocks have been going up.) I know many of these tech companies are playing games with their numbers. (I was originally a fundamentalist too.) But the bottom line is that no one is going to admit to this fact before the next upcycle is underway and the past is dismissed. Is this the greater fool theory? Yes, but it is profitable. And what happens next year when the street starts the annual spin about Japanese money flowing into the U.S. market? Try NASDAQ 2200+ and DOW 11,000 (I'm being conservative with these estimates). A bloated PC channel? Maybe and maybe not. So what? The street will spin any negative inventory situation as "this is to be expected every year" and stock prices will go up. If MU could trade at $28 while being immensely unprofitable, then it can trade at $75 while being immensely unprofitable. (MU @ $75 is my target price by March/April '99) We are at war and Clinton's administration is weakened, and the stock market zooms up. Maybe Barrons will tell us all tomorrow about how this is all wrong so that the market can then go up some more. Does anyone here challenge your thinking any more or am I the only bad boy around these days? <G>

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