Bruce, not really, what that means, IMHO, is the the floorless is no longer a floorless. Therefore, the fear of potential excessive dilution is no longer an issue. Now the issue is execution and how the management will handle Mr. Murphy's periodical appearances. I think that the total battery market is in the $6 to $7 billion bucks, but a very large portion of that market is in primary rather then rechargeable batteries, and then in the Li-polymer batteries segment of that market, VLNC will have to compete with some five or six major contenders and probably the same amount of minor contenders. The chips to be played, IMHO, will probably be less technological advantage and more marketing savvy, corporate partnerships and joint ventures. If VLNC can show a breakthrough in any of these, one could expect the market valuation of VLNC to increase from its current roughly $300 MM or so (give or take $50 MM) to two or maybe three times that much. I do not see a valuation of a billion bucks on this company for some time, maybe until they show they have the potential to capture a good 20% of their market segment. This will be a major feat in view of the many powerful participants. TNB is no slouch with annual sales in general in the $1 billion plus range and with existing marketing channels to both the automotive and computer industry. I have not followed this market closely enough to assess who will be the victors and survivors and who will be left behind.
In this case, I will simply follow my technical nose, since the potential is there for a good double to triple bagger from here.
Zeev |
