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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 222.55-4.4%Nov 18 3:59 PM EST
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To: llamaphlegm who wrote (30495)12/19/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (3) of 164684
 
Another wild-assed, crazy forecast:

Amazongonenutty.com will pull back modestly next week but will continue to move up in the first weeks of 1999. By the third week of February, (the timing is really speculative this many weeks out), Amazon will start to decline as the glow of Christmas sales wears off and competitors are shown to be making some progress. By late Spring the stock will have retreated as much as 62% from it's high of 340. Amazon will continue to roll out extensions to its Junglee "Vendor Bot" (copyright, Y.N.S.) and will announce new vendor relationships that are intended to bring in increased royalty and advertising revenues. However, losses will continue at a record pace and discounting among competitors will increase in importance, even at this early stage of e-commerce development. Not many ANALS or investors will pay that much attention to competitive factors as sales continue to grow at a robust pace through the Spring and into next summer. By next Christmas season, however, the pace of growth will become more difficult for Amazon to maintain despite the additional products and royalty sales arrangements. Profit margins will continue to be under pressure and more industry analysts will report that future margin growth is suspect because of increased price competition.

My crystal ball is getting over it's clouded hangover from the past few weeks. Looking into 2000, Amazongonenutty.com has even managed to upset the market pundits on Amazon Bizarro World. Bizarro Business Week Magazine has just reported that sozeB has been indicted for stock manipulation and has joined Yeltsin and Clinton in retirement.
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