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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX)

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To: accountclosed who wrote (881)12/19/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (2) of 3558
 
Every trade analysis sometimes referred to as tick volume. I take the raw data and analyze it in real time on computer. It's complicated. To make a long story short, I try to measure the extent to which net positive tick volume is associated with sensitivity to price. It is a way of establishing regimes of elasticity and the persistence of such regimes. It is one step up from knowing what's in the specialist's book. I want to know if a little buying raises price disproportionately relative to a quiescent state and similarly whether a little selling has proportionate or disproportionate effects. The specialist develops an intuitive sense for elastic/inelastic states. I measure them.

This is the best that can be done in TA, however it doesn't predict price. Nothing does because the market process is stochastic, and a corollary to the Ahhaha Uncertainty Principle asserts that the extent of the effect of changed state due to new information can never be assessed by past time series data. This is similar to the Weak Random Walk Hypothesis. You can only evaluate whether a stock is on-balance desired or if it has become on-balance undesired. Thus, you never can assess how stupid people can get, that's unbounded; how smart they can be is finite, limited, and easy to know. Fear is more powerful than greed up to pricelessness.
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