<< IMO, the game stops with a Nasdaq crash. >>
When one goes, all of them will follow. The timing will be completely unexpected to most people except when examined in retrospect -- there will be clearly visible signs.
Most people now expect a great 4th quarter, followed by a weak 1st quarter. So the best time to get out of Internet e-commerce stocks like AMZN is when the 4th quarter earning is announced (Jan 22). No matter how good the earning will be, the day after the announcement, the stock will tumble due to 'profit taking.'
But of course, everyone knows to 'sell on news' so the tumble will be expected. Since everyone expects it, it won't happen. Instead, they will sell before then. Or sometime between now and Jan 22, something will set off the chain reaction of selling. Perhaps something as simple as a rumor of SEC investigating short-selling for thin-float Internet stocks, like AMZN.
Another possibility is this: during the next two weeks, small investors selling some of their holdings to lock-in profit for 1998. Nothing feel better than to gloat to one's distant relatives, "I bought at $95, sold at $295!"
There has been many signs. Lone analyst set target at $400, Merril counters with $50. Numerous analysts on CNBC and CNN raising the caution flag. Larger than previous year's negative earnings, despite strong sales. All the signs are here.
Yikes |
