PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year Message Board

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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year

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Oct 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: pass pass who wrote (3937)	12/20/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) of 4509

pass pass, just from a pure mkt perspective, I learned last year with informix that it was best to wait until mid-December if I was trying to time the low. Dont wait too long though because these beat up stocks start to rise after Xmas. Having said that.... as I have mentioned before I feel this is an overall industry thing and there are only a few weak players such as vntv and manu that have been killed and their business is in trouble (those 2 will probably be acquired) but for everybody else sap, psft, sebl, itwo etc they are simply seeing a slowing in growth rates across the board. Psft is no worse than anybody else in backoffice as far as the overall mkt slowdown. Psft stock was punished a little more because they mishandled last qtr with the analysts etc, and psfts direct competitors (Orcl and Sap) from a stock perspective have some uniqueness which makes psft appear to be underperforming when it is not (Orcl stock is rising due to engine strength, msft/doj issues, and the fact that they finally did something with apps division, Sap was somewhat discounted in the past since they were not listed in the US). The problem I have is that it is difficult to make predictions on the eventual recovery from an entire industry slump. Psft will recover because they are strong in some mkts (such as education) that clearly are working on y2k now. And the internet has enabled business to business commerce and I feel psft,orcl and sap will benefit from that certain boom vs a new startup such as Ariba getting that biz. Business to business transactions to replace the old EDI junk will be huge. But, nobody has anything to offer there yet. The stock will probably rise in anticipation of this recovery which will be post-2000 so maybe mid next year is a good bet. Im not in psft but if I had it Id hold. Id wait to buy until the next correction probably March. It might be slightly higher then than now, but you'll get the benefit of the Jan effect on a more bouyant stock and only lose 3 mos. Im not as bearish as gc. I would like to hear from some psft consultants out there as to how business is, however. Last I heard it was pretty much status quo. Michelle

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