Robert, welcome to the asylum <g>
MB will answer you, I am sure in a confident way. He will say that none of us know for sure when reality will come back. That is why he stresses money management. If you have been reading the thread, you have probably come across the 90/10 and thirds methodology.
But on a different level, I agree with your quandary. I believe it is the type quandary that all of us are having. When is rationality going to come back? What is going to be the catalyst that brings it back? I mean really, if last week, with the impeachment of our President and a major military attack on Iraq can drive the market up, how can we ever expect rationality, is what it seems like sometimes. I do think MB is right. You have to have a system that preserves most of your capital so that getting the timing wrong doesn't put you out of the game. And you need to be disciplined at continuing to pursue, even when it gets discouraging.
Let me give you another quandary that I have. I believe that the "nifty fifty" has been driven up beyond all reason. In tech, I cite msft, intc, dell, csco. The multiples of all of these stocks are something I am not familiar with being an investor of 32 years. My quandary is will those over hyped stocks logically fall the furthest, or will dipsters come in and prevent a large magnitude fall by scooping up "bargains". I have exposure to that list in puts, but have diversified away and will probably do more of the same.
Hope this helps a little. |
