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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2523)12/20/1998 10:15:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
Justa,re:impeachment etc. I'm thinking a key aspect of how big a deal this will be in the Senate is how most of the Democrats will be willing to frame the issue. Most of the Democrats in the House felt that whether the charges were true or not given that this all related to testimony related to a private lawsuit and thus did not meet the standard of treason, bribery or other high crimes and misdemeanors against the state. As has been brought up the "against the state" part was only removed later on just for the sake of cleaning up some of the older phrases in the constitution without any intent to change the meaning. If the bulk of democrats in the Senate also feel this way and thus say that even if all the impeachment charges are true they don't feel they rise to the Constitutional test for removal from office and make this clear at the outset I'm not sure what the purpose of a full trial bringing in Monica, Linda Tripp etc. would be other than to continue to boost ratings for cable news shows and provide late night fodder for Leno etc. I think the failure of any censure consideration in the house and a factor that cannot be disregarded in the Senate is the strength and virulent hatred many Republicans particularly many in the "religious right" have for Clinton and this is a difficult force to go against unless you're prepared to have primary opposition in the next election. In the Senate where you have to get at least 12 Democrats I don't see many other than maybe Moynihan and Byrd going with the Republicans. So if the Democrats refuse to get drawn into whether whether Bill touched Monica where and whether it was done with an intent to arouse etc. they should quickly reach a conclusion that they need to frame the issue in terms of even if he did what the House said he did it's not enough for removal from office and this may quickly lead to some censure resolution. This has the added advantage that the democrats can reasonably lay out this position at the start without appearing to prejudge the facts that may come up. Finally as far as the markets are concerned I had to laugh last week thinking about these poor slob bears who were finally getting a dream scenario handed to them, impeachment and war handed to them in the same week and the market handed them their final indignity by moving up nicely for the week.

Marc
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