Past performance is not all that one should look for. The points that were made were:
1. CSCO got a pretty good head-start in networking, especially in Router area. Before, no one wants to compete with CSCO as the mkt is barely large enough for CSCO to make some money. But, with the Internet exposion and the the telecom deregulation, the mkt has now become very attractive. So, during the last 2-3 years many companies, from startups to established companies (LU, CPQ, INTC, NT) have ben gearing up to come up with great products. Much more competition that will reduce margin that was not even there before.
2. This scenario is already taken place in the ATM and GBit segment. The previous posts showed that in Gbit, startups are ahead of CSCO.
And FORE is way ahead of CSCO in ATM.
3. CSCO still enjoys the momentum from the existing customers and the on-going Internet expansion. But, when the next wave of Router startups hit the street next year, the same thing as Gbit LAN segment will happen to CSCO.
Therefore, the conclusion is that CSCO will face tough margin pressure going forward and thus the stock should drop next year. All imho. |
