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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Gary Burton who wrote (33160)12/21/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: SargeK  Read Replies (3) of 95453
 
The Turn Around is Near

All cycles have bottoms including this one. The glut in crude will disappear in 1999 by a combination of two simple factors, further cuts in production and unexpected increases in demand.

The Oil Service Sector (OSX) will turn first, signalling crude price recovery. With only a few days of modest tax selling remaining the prime motivator of further price erosion will have been removed. GIFI, my favorite OSX indicator closed @ 8 ¼ Friday on 25,700 shares traded, demonstrating that most investors that wanted to sell have already done so. Currently 8 on 2k shares.

Speculation of a world wide recession next year have been verblown but have had the effect of pumping 100s of billions into econonmies to stem the recessionary slide. Japan is now contemplating a 300 billion dollar stimulation package to get that economy back on track. Milton Friedman said it best. He said to avoid depression, "PRINT MONEY", precisely what is being done on a significant scale.

Those who have hung in or who are reentering after taking losses will see their portfolios restored and perhaps multiplied beyond previous levels.

It is not a question of "IF"; but, "WHEN". I believe we are on the threshhold of the "WHEN". During 1999 I FORECAST the OSX into three digits, probably sooner than most expect or anticipate. I see 60 or better within ninety days and I wouldn't be surprised if it occurs next month.

I am now only 10% cash for further bargain shopping.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all

SargeK


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