Important! Rules for the Contest:Read the rules, your entry will not count if you don't follow the rules.
1. Each entrant will be allowed three (3) entries. Members of SI only, you enter under your own alias, not for someone else. Your identity will be kept confidential. Each member can post more than three times on the contest thread, but ONLY the numbered submissions (see Rule 3) get counted. Minimum of 50 words and a maximum of 250 words per post. This is a contest for predicting the fundamental reasoning as to why the event will occur. Thus eloquence counts and one should not post a ridiculous/questionable reason along with a date just to grub a date.
The Judges will be looking for a convincing essay that will help investors avoid a serious reduction of the value of their internet portfolio and/or allow them to profit by selling them short. Links to supporting evidence for your prediction are totally acceptable and are encouraged.
2. Each entry may have a guess as to the reason why. If you want to guess the reason why, but not timing that is fine.
3. All predictions have to be at least two days prior to the event, as determined by the judges. If you are predicting the timing, specify a specific day, please.
4. At the beginning of your entry, put the number of your submission. If your submission does not start with the number 1, 2, or 3, it will not count as an entry.
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Examples of Entry Posts:
1) The index will fall 40% because the Fed will require 100% margin account deposit. As well, by the time this happens brokerage firms will require a minimum of $25,000 on deposit before any internet related stock can traded. This is already evidenced by….. [50 to 250 words] with links. This will occur April 2nd as investors simultaneously realize that 1st quarter revenue will not match that of the 4th quarter Christmas buying frenzy. [Why and When]
2). I think the stocks will tank because Jupiter has aligned with Mars and peace will fill the planets. I think this will happen starting on January 28, 1999. [A nonsensical, thus it will likely be thrown out b the judges who will be looking for logic]
3. On May 18, 1999, the stocks will start the 5 day decline to a 40% loss. ["When" prediction which would need to be written with one of the person's three Why posts or linked to it if that post did not have a date]
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5. In the event of one or more stock splits during the time of the contest, an averaging multiplier will be used as follows: In the case of the first stock that's split, the multiplier is the sum of the prices immediately before the split divided by the sum immediately
after the split. For example, if three of the stocks are at $200 at the time of the split and the other 2 are at $100 and one of the $200 stocks splits 2 for 1 then the total price before the split is $800, the total after the split is $700, the multiplier is 800/700 = 8/7 = 1.142857 and the adjusted total of the 5 stocks after the split is $700 x (8/7)= $800 (so there has been no change in the value of the index due to the split). If a second split occurs, calculate the ratio for the second split just as for the first and then take the new multiplier to be the multiplier following the first split times the ratio computed for the second split.
6. In the event of a tie on the prediction of the timing, the earliest correctly entered submission which correctly describes clearly Why shall be deemed the winner.
7. The winning reason(s) why the down move occurred and when it started will be adjudicated as the winner(s) by the judges, and the judges' decision shall be final.
8. Any violation of the rules, including the "rules of fair play" may void your entry. Play fair. Fairness to be what the judges define it to be, so be good!
There will be a contest site soon, when it exists, a link will be posted here.
Good luck and may the best thought out post win!
Additional Clarifications:
The Tulip index must decline 40% or more on a daily close to close basis in an eight
day (or less) period.
All entries after 2/6/99 MUST have the entry number listed first, the predicted date in
which the decline will start, followed by a 10-15 word synopsis starting in the first line
to be eligible.
Following those three items, the entrant should then provide his or her reasoning, using
the following format for the post:
#1 2/14/99 Decline starts due to rising interest rates due to tight employment data.
[post in depth, descriptive and convincing reasons why, any relevant links, etc.]
The above changes were made to assist others in seeing what has already been posted
as well as to simplify the task of the judges.
Remember, the best reason is required to win, the timing (date) the blowoff starts is
secondary. Timing guesses will be considered plus or minus 1 trading day, judge's
decisions for reason and date are final.
INCORRECT FORMAT ON YOUR ENTRY WILL DISQUALIFY IT, SO READ
THE RULES AND FOLLOW THEM. |
