From the same Stratfor site:
* United States and the Lovely Ms. Lewinsky
What would a quarterly report be without a mention of President Clinton's problems? There is absolutely nothing left to say after the torrent of words, save that we do not think that he will resign over this nor be forced from office. However, this is the screen behind which a tidal wave lurks. Monica is trivial. The campaign finance scandals are potentially enormous. It will take about six months for that crisis to make itself felt. When it does, it will make Monica a footnote.
Of more immediate importance is the U.S. economy. Let's distinguish that from the stock market, about which we are as confused as anyone else. However, the economy continues to appear strong. We would not be surprised to see a recession, since one is long overdue. However, even that does not seem immediately likely, simply because the numbers do not support a major slowdown. Nevertheless, if a recession occurs, we do not think that it will be the apocalypse that is being predicted. What is interesting to us is the extent to which serious people expect a catastrophe. To us, cranky contrarians that we are, this is the most bullish sign of all.
Indeed, what we believe we are seeing is the segmentation of the global economy into three, marginally related parts: Asia, Europe, and the United States. If we are correct, then global meltdowns are most unlikely. One test of this theory will be Latin America. We started the year bullish on Latin America and remain bullish, even after the terrible battering its markets have received. However, in our view, Latin America's fate is linked to the U.S., and the Asian and Russian meltdowns, quite real, have only psychological effects. Latin America has been stabilizing in the past weeks, and we believe that the stabilization will continue.
>>>There were other reports in the archives from late September that
>>>Clinton, as a politically weak president, was looking for a crisis
>>>to solve. |
