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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 665.67-0.9%4:00 PM EST

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To: Investor2 who wrote (2467)12/21/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (3) of 99985
 
Investor,

>>>> Just to clarify, when you get a sell signal today, it means that one should sell tomorrow, at the highs. Right? Likewise, if you were to get a buy signal today, you would buy tomorrow, at the lows? What method do you use to estimate the "highs" and the "lows?" <<<<<<

That is correct - my signal rings for the following day which I call the BUY-IN day. There is always the chance that the market will reverse the day of the signal.

In any short-term swing whether up or down, the last 1-2 days of that short-term trend is commonly a strong movement day in the direction of that day, such as today, and tomorrow could be another.

Please keep in mind that my CLASS SIGNALs are only for the initial pop or drop and is good for about 1-3 points for a $50 stock, and 150-250 points for the DOW, but could be as little as 75 points.

I am not expecting a huge drop for the rest of DEC, nor upside. Per a previous note I was expection 100-200 point swings in either direction, with 9100-9200 as topside till end of the year. We are already in the 100-200 point gain from FRI's close. If 9100-9200 holds then the STAIR-STEP is continuing, at least for now.

My system is not linear. What I mean by LINEAR, since I have received many PM's/emails on that question, is that when a index/stock breaks a pivot point(support/resistance line) it sends a signal to buy or sell.
For example, last week I got my CLASS 1 BUY signal last MONDAY, when a linear system wont signal a buy until it moves up a certain amount, and in this case the linear systems started signaling buys more towards the middle of last week. I believe that POINT & FIGURE just gave a buy signal from what I read on SI, and it is a linear system.

I developed my own system and I am not aware from SI of someone having a similar system. My system is more based on time than price, and without going into details it basicly measures the volume of the oscilations. Using a non-stagnant base-line, I calculate the volume of the oscillations above and below the base-line, using calculus. The key is the rate of change, which could/commonly takes the form of divergences. It looks something like the MACD HISTOGRAM, but totally different calculations. I then take LIMITS of the SLOPE to project to predict timing of the reversal.

Please understand that the above explanation is only for my short-term analysis. My INTRADAY and MID/LONG term analysis is different.

Seeya

Hope this explains it.

Seeya
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