Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 231.26

+2.7%

11:10 AM EST

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To: Math Junkie who wrote (27352)	12/21/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) of 70976

>>If bookings growth stalls out, or if the market as a whole has a big drop, then I could see it, but otherwise I would not bet good money on such a scenario.<< richard, this is what i expect. i think the boxmakers are building inventory at a dangerous pace - each expecting to steal market share. that is why component demand is so high. muei's results were lackluster. i think come late jan or feb most of the boxmakers stand up and yell "inventory correction." this would further squeeze the dram boys who aren't making much, if any, money now. say good bye to cap exes at that point. the dram boys don't need to just break even to stay competitive - they need the cash to roll in b/c they need billions of free cash to up the ante for the next year. y2k software expenditures will use up enough cash that hardware purchases will be reduced in 1999 - further exacerbating the inventory correction. this scenario is diametrically opposite to conventional wisdom. if i'm right, we ought to see all time highs... ;-)

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