Berney; RE:" F/A, T/A and GAIN "
>...business associate actually brought AOL to my attention in late 1997. The split-adjusted price was about $9. I thought it was too expensive based on the PE of some 6XX. Silly me!
...silly all of us, dude: AMZN up 800% YTD ??
From what I can tell, the best F/A predictor of GAIN is Perceived Projected Earnings Growth ( let's call it PPEG :-). The "perceived" is not only, "what's in fashion" with investors (ie., visibility) but also, "consistency" w.r.t. expectations, whatever they happen to be... MSFT and DELL come to mind.
BigBoy stocks like SWY - Safeway (sector:retail; sub:grocery) and SGP - ScheringPlough (sector:drugz) look to me like classical, conservative/defensive buy-and-hold stocks; eg., I like their monthly and quarterly charts. Up +70% this year, 130-170% last two years - they look like good stocks to buy and hold and/or LEAP on any dip on their monthly charts.
What I like best are stocks with charts that I can "read well"; ie., when I overlay all my T/A stuff, their dips and peaks are easy for me to see. The best T/A predictor of GAIN is "a well-behaved chart", for whatever technique(s) one applies, IMHO. There should be a measure for "how accurately the entry and exit points are to identify" ;-)
What I'm doing now is "fitting" various T/A measures/indicators to the 30 or so stocks on the chat-N-chew list, trying to see just how well I can read their charts' entry and exit points.
Candlesticks work great for turning points (sentiment), but are of lesser value when it comes to extent (momentum), where I am weakest.
This evening, I'm working on a variation of one of your techniques, the MACD, where I'm creating "envelopes" of various EMA's above and below weekly charts. This works pretty good on some stocks.
-Steve |
