Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote ()	12/22/1998 4:03:00 AM
From: SilverAG	Read Replies (2) of 3543

#1 I believe the fall will start today, Dec 22! The reason does not have anything to do with the fundamentals or news about the internet sector. It has to deal with technicals and an overall correction in the markets that will be precipitated by Alan Greenspan's statements to cool off the bubble. I believe the decline will start today when investors start to take profits after today's incredible run-up. quote.yahoo.com Even though these 5 internuts went ballistic today, their volumes were not that much different from their trailing 3 month ave. volumes. This tells me that the boost yesterday was not due to a broad based push upwards, but rather a narrow run-up caused by a few speculators. The volume is inconsistent with the unusually large % gains i.e. the volume should have been much larger for those gains. It certainly smells like toppish behavior, and I believe the correction will come once the DOW & NASDAQ start to decline. 3 Mo. Ave Vol yesterday Vol AMZN 5.0 5.6 YHOO 8.6 8.7 AOL 14.9 18.2 EBAY 1.9 2.3 CMGI 1.4 2.9 I calculated the amount of money that poured into these 5 stocks yesterday and came up with an incredible $13.3 BILLION. That is more than the entire market cap of EBAY and close to the market cap of AMZN. Incredible!! Totally Unsustainable!! I believe that the decline in the DOW & NASDAQ, which will trigger the fall of these 5 stocks, will happen today because of: 1) A slew of disappointing earnings reported after the close yesterday 2) Asian markets down last night (Japan -3% at one point, HK, Korea lower) 3) Nervousness about a potential US-EU trade war developing biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com Once the markets start heading lower the nets will correct in a huge way & actually lead the DOW & NASDAQ lower throughout the rest of the day as investors start to take profits. Then, in the afternoon, I believe that the Fed will issue a statement that will knock the stuffing out of the DOW and NAZ. The Fed is aware of the dangerous stock market bubble created as a result of the rate cuts and will attempt to let some steam out. biz.yahoo.com This will lend a bearish mood for the markets throughout the remainder of this week. The markets will go into the long weekend on a negative note; any bad news over the weekend will be seen in the worst light so that on next Monday we'll have a big correction. We'll see some panic selling that will bring about a 40% correction in these 5 stocks by next week. All the above just a what-the-hey prediction for the purposes of this contest- please don't take it for anything other than that.

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