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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (2515)	12/22/1998 7:55:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Arafat to declare a Palestinian State, Israel will disarm the PLO The likely scenario now is that there will be an election in Israel around April. If so there will be no government in place on May 8 or whatever day it is that is 5 years from Oslo. With a four way race for the premiership and then needing a majority of parliament to approve the government this could be even messier than normal. The Israelis will find it difficult to act decisively given that there is not an immediate attack on them. Arafat might exploit the situation without being forced by Mubarak or whoever. Of course that could be a collosal miscalculation like the ones his mate Saddam has the habit of making. On the other hand he might wait hoping a left wing government is elected which is likely. Up till now he would have been expecting Netaynahu to hold on till 2000 which was too long. David

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