Seagate Technology - Fundamentals Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals

STX 339.75

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9:37 AM EST

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To: manohar kanuri who wrote (377)	12/22/1998 10:13:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (3) of 1989

Mano,you wrote: FWIW, Stitch and all, I'm going negative on the market. Don't like what's going on in Washington. While I am always respectful of your opinion, I think you are worried over nothing with this impeachment brouhaha. This is politics in America at its finest. In my opinion, keeping Washington away from “the business of the country” for three months is a huge plus. <g> It wasn't too many years ago that Congress adjourned in June or July for the entire year! The country somehow managed to survive their absence for half the year. I think our elected officials have too high of an opinion of themselves and their importance. If you want something to worry about, I can think of lots of things that I would place on my list above the impeachment of a Washington scoundrel. [Isn't that redundant?] Here are just a few: -Earnings: S&P earnings are going to rise at a much slower rate, if at all, the next few years. The average investor seems to think that 15% gains are the norm and is primed for disappointment. -Lower profit margins: Profit margins the last few years have been driven up to historically high levels and competition is poised to bring them back to earth. -Market bubbles: History shows that these do not usually end rationally and quietly. Speculation ends abruptly and sometimes damages unrelated areas. Are we in a bubble? There are lots of signs that we are. -(Specific worry for tech stock investors): The recent rally has been nothing more than the cessation of the inventory liquidation that drove stocks down earlier. I would worry that the market has been fooled on the upside of the inventory cycle, just like it was fooled by the downside of the cycle earlier. -The proliferation of really bad movies and TV shows. Or is it just me? I would worry a lot more about any of the above than the shenanigans in the nation's capital. -Robert

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