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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?
YHOO 52.580.0%Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)12/22/1998 10:38:00 AM
From: Zirdu  Read Replies (1) of 3543
 
My prediction, is that these net stocks will begin their drop with the first trading day in 1999. All of these stocks of course have huge gains in 1998. Many of their stockholders are likely sitting on huge capital gains, but are waiting till 1999 to sell and so put their tax gains off into the next year.

The net stocks pricing in the market seems chaotic, in the scientific sense. Like the weather, a small change on the margin somewhere can magnify itself into a huge change in the momentum. I say that change will come starting January 4th, the first trading day of 1999, and be due to some of the net stock's "long term" (if such a term is appropriate for stocks that were IPO's in 1998!) holders bailing out.

If you look at the history of some other stocks that have been at the top of the gainers for one year, it is not unusual for them to have a bad year the following year, for the above reason.
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