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Strategies & Market Trends : Russia/Templeton Russia Fund (TRF)

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To: Quang Nguyen who wrote (76)12/22/1998 2:09:00 PM
From: Daniel Shaffer  Read Replies (1) of 94
 
Darkest before the Dawn:

I would like to keep in touch with other TRF investors from
time to time.

It is hard to imagine things getting much worse in Russia. Unlike
Soviet times when the state owned everything, there are now many
people -- especially young people -- who have had a taste of
economic freedom, entrepreneurship, prosperity, and western
business management. Many now have a stake in the
continuance of economic reforms -- and a lot to lose if things descend
back into chaos.

If history is a guide, this new private sector will influence the political
system greatly and pressure for continued reform out of the need
for self-preservation. Many Russian businesses and "biznessmeni"
are not really "broke". They have merely parked their assets in dollar accounts outside of Russia in order to preserve them.

Sooner or later, possibly under a new government, Russia's
recovery will resume. In terms of TRF, it is hard to imagine
the price getting any lower than the $8 to $9 range, so we
may be seeing a low.

Any other thoughts or opposing views?
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