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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Paul Berliner who wrote (1119)12/22/1998 3:13:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (2) of 3536
 
Paul,

Although I agree with your theory that U.S. rates could decline due to lower rates abroad, I just think the economy is growing too fast for the Fed to ease any more.

Think about it. Just 12 months ago we were all worrying about Asia and the slowing effect it would have. Then we had a 20% drop in stock prices, wiping out trillions of dollars in wealth. During the year we had a major strike at one of the countries biggest producers. (GM) Despite all this the economy is going to show almost 4% real growth for the year. Without the GM strike, growth most certainly would have topped 4%.

Now Asia has stabilized, the market has rebounded, the dollar has dropped and consumers keep spending. I would have been surprised to see any Fed action.

-Robert
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