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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (35249)12/23/1998 8:15:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
David,

Re: LT E count.

I have reviewed the charts over and over, and have a complete 1929-1998 count which I'll post later today.

The '29-'32 “correction” is IMO Supercycle 4 of the Grand Super Cycle that started after the collapse of the south sea bubble, around the time of the US declaration of independence.
The beginning of the grand super cycle correlates with the start of the industrial revolution.
The data prior to 1914 is scanty, but from what's available one can try and correlate Supercycle 1 with the emergance of steam engine and trains, that enabled a leapfrog in capacity. Once a mature industry , the supercycle ended and led to the panic and consolidation of Supercycle 2. The following Supercycle 3 can be correlated with the invention of internal combustion and electric power, and led to 1929 and the big depression (4) once the car, the airplane and the lightbulb were mature products.

A Supercycle needs an adult's lifetime to complete . Investors do not repeat that kind of behavior as long as they live. In 1929 the generation born prior to 1850 was mostly dead.
In 1999, the 1929 generation (born prior to 1909) is mostly dead.

The 1916-1921 period looks like an ABC consolidation which makes the cycle 4 of Supercycle 3, and 1921-1929 cycle 5 of Supercycle 3 is a very clear impulse wave with an extended 5.
The big crash and burn 9/29-7/32 and the big depression is Supercycle 4, and Supercycle 5 count will follow in the next post.

ATG
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