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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (2713)	12/23/1998 9:21:00 AM
From: Carl R.	of 99985

You are correct in a way. The biggest problem that I have with traditional TA is that you have to study graphs for things that "seem" to work, but it seems all too easy to color the results to suit what you want. Then if it doesn't work, you can blame yourself for missing some key variable rather than questioning whether or not the thing that you are using to predict is in fact a useful predictor. The neural net program I use examines many variables and selects those that predict the best. It also helps me to test my hypothesis (i.e. predictive behavior) over a variety of time periods. To me it is not that different from standard TA except that it is less subjective. It becomes more of a black box. As a result, I can't give you a reason for a prediction other than "the computer did it". And as for my own voodoo, yes, I do throw some in. <VBG> Carl

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