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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: J.T. who wrote (22074)	12/23/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Hi JT,..Re:. NAPM is early indicator in direction changes of health of economy. Thanks for your reply. Also best wishes to you and yours for the holiday season. I don't think I explained very clearly why I wasn't so worried about the sagging NAPM numbers. The manufacturing sector has been losing jobs for well over a year now and the service sector has been adding them at way more than double the rate of loss in manufacturing. For this reason and others, I don't think the US consumer is going to abandon their ways unless we get some new fright like in early Oct. The NAPM now publishes a non-manufacturing business activity number and that's still healthy, although slowing in Nov. dismal.com NAPM non-manufacturing business activity Also, Bloomberg has a good article showing the contribution of the manufacturing sector vs. the consumer which provides a good perspective. Message 6941243 I guess what I am trying with difficulty to say is that the measurements and yardsticks we used 30 years ago in a heavily industrialized economy might not be as accurate in today's more service driven economy. Finally, regarding PEs, you might want to take a look at the following article. cbs.marketwatch.com Happy holidays, Lee

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