I've noticed that despite all the speculation about buyouts
either by LU, IBM, or others that ASND's price seems to track LU's
at roughly .6 to 1. I've been watching that "rule" for at least a
couple of months now, off and on, and have been amazed at how
consistent this seems to be.
There may be other suitors or rumored suitors or no suitor at all,
but it seems that a lot of investors (speculators/arbitrageurs?) are
betting that LU will acquire ASND at better than .6 per LU per ASND
share. Unfortunately I think LU's share price is the driver here,
which means that if either LU or ASND makes a move/acquisition that
would nix a LU/ASND combination, ASND's share price could take a nasty
slide when the speculators bail (and don't discount that too fast -
we've already been to hell, er, I mean 22, and back this year
already).
I'd love to see ASND pull a 50 PE on it's own, but I suspect that the
current ASND valuation is a reflection of a LU deal, not ASND's
strength. And if Mory and crew know that a LU deal is either not
imminent or not likely, it would certainly explain their eagerness to
profit from while the price is up.
I love the current share price (my average is in the high 30's), but
I dread it's apparent tie to LU's price without some kind of deal in
place. I just can't get the CIEN/TLAB debacle out of my mind when
thinking about what LU might be capable of doing to the competition's
investors.
I'd certainly like to see a chart plotting (LU * 0.6) and (ASND) that
would either confirm or refute this observation if anyone has the
means to conjure one up quickly.
Rob Pierce |
