IMO this "wait to buy" attitude of his is a MAJOR problem, and one of the reasons he's done so poorly in recent years. He'll see a stock that is beaten down, but has great products, good market share, good R&D, and everything else going for it. Then he'll say "wait to buy" because we need to see a bottom first, it's likely to become an EVEN BETTER value, blah blah blah.
Of course, the bottom is usually visible only in hindsight, and long after the stock already started a clear upswing. He did the same thing with the datacom companies a couple of years ago and missed out on EASY 100%+ profits in just a few months because he "needed to see a better value".
On the flip side are those companies which he claims "have seen a bottom" and continue dropping.
At the moment, everything he says about PSFT is true. On that basis it is a buy. If it drops off a bit in the new year, I'd accumulate more, but even at these levels it's a buy for a long term hold.
I find lots of value in his insights into some companies, but find it necessary to temper that with my own experience and insight. The timing is terrible and I frequently make up that part on my own.
mg |
