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To: Timothy Liu who wrote (17534)	12/23/1998 8:53:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 18056

Timothy, you are right, but, the best estimate I have seen is that advertising dollars spent on the net (total) will reach just $10 Billions by 2001 or 2002. Look at the current valuation of the nutz in toto and you get well above $150 Billions today. Even if you accept the figure bandied around that the etail business will reach (world wide) some $300 Billions by 2003 (which will be in excess of 5% of all consumer spending), you still find it difficult to justify these prices, IMHO. Of course, if you know who will be the survivors, then you can make a case for valuing such a survivor at one time their potential sales three four years hence, but I am not smart enough to determine who will survive and who will not. My guess is that the survivors will be the current general retailers' own internet stores, they know best how to market to the consumer. And investing in them because of the internet is a folly, because their internet sales will canibalize their malls' sales. Zeev

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