Sticking my nose in again.
I think the best market forces to move the RBOCs to FTTN and FTTB is Teligent and Winstar. Both are Multi-Billion debt funded. Both are after Business customers in MTBs. Both want the phone business and throw in Data services as an enticement. Both say, "gimme your phone bill, here it is back with a 30% cut" Both are wireless (with Winstar having the larger bandwidth).
Taking the RBOC's biz customer is serious. This will make them move, bigtime.
Then, as the MTB model plus the National Service Provider model is proven for the Fortune Global 1000, other companies like QWEST and Level 3 will take away backbone business from the RBOCs, and even T. Right now ILECs are sitting fat and happy because their pipes are 60%+ full. But with all the fiber backbone coming on line, and DWDM dropping in price every year, the race will be to bring FTTN, FTTB to increase the value of service to the end user, and thus bring your dreams to fruition.
Time frame: 25 years to completion, 50% complete in 15 years, 90% complete in 20 years.
Cable HFC is only an attempt to use existing cable infrastructure, but loading is a big issue as the AtHome complaints in Fremont CA show. As DenverTechie commented, a typical node has 2000-4000 homes, which will max out the 30Meg bit/s channel rather quickly. (QoS? What's that? you just need 7.5kbits/sec or 800 bytes per sec)
There is a way to switch more channels (from a cable TV channel to an Internet 30 meg channel) to alleviate the problem, but, geez, the current cable modems can't do that, and oh, the cable modem consortium would have to agree on which channels to eliminate, the upper or lower spectrum and then how to move the channels around, to maximize the revenue. This isn't hard to do, but it'll take another year, since they just did it.
BL
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