Dan, no need to apologize, I said myself that that post was confusing, and for good reasons, IMHO. The equip sector behaves as if we are in the midst of another major capital expansion, yet the 3 months average of new fab announcement is down around $500 MM (copmare to a peak of about $5 Billions in 1995). Sure, CYMI can make its numbers (the reduced one) on upgrades of the existing fabs, but growth to its capacity of 1000 lasers per year will require announcements of new fabs, IMO, and that is still not here.
If the stock break through the resistance at I believe around $15 or so, there is a real danger that it will go even lower than $12. I really do not know which will it do, it could very well stay in this trading range until we start and see new fabs announcements. The Chip makers are in no rush, and I hear the DRAM people are in the process (through upgrading to .18) to double capacity again, without any new fabs. My guts feeling is that most of these upgrading lasers are already at the ASMLF of the world and thus a major surprise up may not be that easy.
Zeev |
