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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Claude Cormier who wrote (35632)12/24/1998 6:03:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
>>Can you explain why We can't have it this way:

Cycle 4 t= 6 years
Primary a - 11/68 to 6/70
Primary b- 6/70 to 12/72
Primary c- 12/72 to 8/82

well, that was maybe the toughest call on the LT count.
Did the bear cycle end in '74 or did it extend to '78 or even '82?

On the S&P real return chart
cpcug.org
Both counts look to be carrying the same weight.

But on the ratio scale 1920-1998 chart (Acrobat reader needed)
webcom.com
One can see the similarity between the '70s and the '30s, and that the question is more general- Where do you mark the end of a big 4th wave.
If extended for a stretched ABC then one should end the Supercycle 4 not in '32 but in '42 and end cycle 4 in '78 rather then '74. This way the period 9/87 to 10/91 can be also counted as one corrective phase.

I prefer the short and steep version of the 4s, that in the cases above also correspond to downturns in the economy.

IMO we are on our way to end a Grand Super Cycle in both the stock market and the economy- An event that is unprecedented in modern history. The only economic parallels that come to mind are the collapse of the South Sea bubble and the fall of the Roman Empire.
One sure bet is that Gold will shine brighter if the global economic system will have a system failure and abrupt shutdown.

ATG
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