Bonds are irrelevant to internet market.
Most important thing to real stock market (vs. internet mkt) is earnings. That will be the problem for the 1999 market. With overcapacity, wage inflation, no price power, and waning intl demand, it will be very difficult for corporate America to make a buck in 99, maybe thereafter. I am bearish on the market, generally. Bonds won't matter one way or another. With the aforementioned conditions, however, I don't see yields rising much if at all. Therefore bonds are a medium term safe investment. Wont give you 100% in a day, but nonetheless safe.
Internet stocks have no relation to anything. I do believe that January will be a tough month, with earnings, holiday sales, portfolio managers looking for the next area to make their 99 numbers. It will be impossible for a portfolio manager to beat the market if he is long a bunch of this crap early in the year. In addition, sources say that the big investment houses (Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Oppenheimer, Goldman, DLJ, etc. are acutely aware of this insanity are are counseling their analysts to "take it easy". They are doing this for legal reasons, as you might imagine the lawsuits that will get filed when we pop. The house that causes the pop won't get sued. Everyone else will. Who will be the first to flinch?
Guru. |
