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Gold/Mining/Energy : DIAMONDWORKS DMW.v
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To: Chas. who wrote (120)12/24/1998 11:29:00 AM
From: Kevin Hamlin   of 413
 
Just thinking about it "getting worse". I don't think the market has factored in at all (at this price) the idea that the mine will be reopened any time soon. Walsham is suggesting by the end of January and if the market starts to respond to this thought, there will be a strong upside. Now what if it doesn't? Hmmmmm. My thought is the market hasn't put any time frame on reopening the mine, i.e., it has already heavily discounted the current situation. That's why I think the downside is minimal. This country has been at war in one form or another for decades now so more unrest really isn't anything new. -Maybe new to some people taking a look at this play, but not new to the region at all.

This is not to say that the current situation isn't serious. It is. But "at a certain shareprice", regardless of the situation (short of them walking away from it all which just won't happen) I'm pretty confident that the price won't go any lower. Regardless of the political situation, the mine and the diamonds will always be there, and so will the potential. I believe we are at "that certain price" now....the "we've got a mine but can't mine it at this moment and don't know when we'll be able to mine it" price. Hence, my call that this is the bottom. (and the tax loss selling that has been going on making the price even artificially lower).

Could I be wrong? Sure I could. But damn it'll be soooo nice if I'm right! :))

Kevin
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