Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end?

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Jun 26 5:00 PM EST

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To: esecurities(tm) who wrote (121)	12/24/1998 11:51:00 AM
From: esecurities(tm)	Read Replies (4) of 3543

#2. Will not happen. Depends how one defines 'tulipomania'. Re: CMGIs, eBay, AMZN YHOO there may never be a total long-term sustained blowoff...AOL is like comparing apples and oranges with the Internet jet-set...but it appears to have established substantive brand equity whereas the others are literally one click away from extinction and brand equity contemporaneous with ROE is what it is all about...the top tier internet players theoretically will and should never experience a total 'blowoff'...second-tier aka bottom-tier (i.e. if you are not first tier you will and correctly should simply always be a 'blowoff' waiting to happen) ones e.g. egghead.com, multiplezones.com, et al will all 'blowoff', again, per #1) when any one of them experiences and formally announces q-q declining revenues...the handwriting will then be on the wall like a heart attack for all second-tier on down players bringing an end to present contrarian investing delusions...and they will/should/most likely will all 'blowoff' in sympathy...and this 'blowoff' event may then provide a superior entry point to accumulate the CMGIs, barnesandnoble.com's, marketwatch.com's (MKTW) (week of Jan 11? IPO),...should they also be taken down with the wannabe's and neverwillbe.com's...today's first-tier tulips will simply be tomorrow's mutinational cyberconglomerates...and all other tulips will soon* be pushing up daisies(.) *within two quarters, i.e. by quarter ending march 31, 1999.

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