Chuzzlewit,
Here's a non-argumentative post, so you can take a deep breath <G>.... And I encourage the thread to not let this get too vitriolic, or let it deteriorate into ad hominem attacks. (I've enjoyed the debate, but personal attacks are starting to crop up.)
You mention from your posts, and I'm paraphrasing (and correct me if I'm wrong), is that your primary disagreement with investing per Buffettology is that it doesn't value hypergrowth well. I can accept that - based in the premise that Buffett stresses predictability over higher risk stocks - especially in technology - that may have more potential (both upside and downside). This dichotomy perhaps represents an irreconcilable difference in the investement methods.
Re: DELL. I don't have an opinion on the stock, but I've been reading the "Ask Michael Burke" thread quite a bit (the thread is currently bearish on tech), and one the theme's that is emerging is that this is the year that PC growth is going to hit the wall. Sources indicate the retail channell is full, and corporate buyers are considerably reigning in spending. The market may not grow at 15% going forward, and some are predicting nearly flat yr/yr revenue growth given the falling ASPs and slowing unit growth. Many retailers are reporting very weak sales this Christmas (Ingram Micro the most recent to report), and I have concerns if the direct channel will be able to buck the trend. In particular, Compaq seems to have flooded the market, and the industry could have a considerable glut. Anyhow, this is the fear I have in investing in the boxmakers right now.
I would be interested in hearing who you thinks benefits from the coming glut (my opinion) in cheap PCs? To me it seems there will be huge growth coming from the trend toward a PC in every home. MSFT clearly is a winner, but I think they're too expensive as an investment right now. Who else do you see benefiting the trend to cheap PCs?
Thanks for you comments here. They've helped make for an interesting Christmas Eve.
Shane |
