Tito, Gottfried and Teri When does IBD "expect AMAT's price to be
minimally from $50 3/8 to $57 1/2?"... Anyway, because of the 20 - 25%
increased popularity of the stock from 2 years ago, we could expect
AMAT to trade higher than 1996 and 1997 prices (in the 40s about 10
dollars higher). So, at the next earnings report in Feb, AMAT should
be at 60 or above... Do you see the stock trading higher than I
outlined --- at that time? (one reason the stock is more popular than
ever is because of AMD's becoming a strong contender again; more
competition among Chip Makers is Good for AMAT)...
IBD was using its base April. I agree with you that it will occur
sooner rather than later. IMO, I do not know if it will reach 60 by
March 1, '99. However, you could be right with your premium price on
AMAT. The reason for my confusion is that in 1996 AMAT's relative
strength in Dec. was 60 to 87 with a price range of $35-40; in Jan a
RS of 65-94, price of $36-49 and FEb. a RS of 90-95 and a price of 41
55. So far '98 we have a DEC RS 92 to 96 and a DW price of $38 to
$47.
You are probably right. My question is, Will the y2k problem create
us topping our two months sooner than the past common topping which
seems to be August in past years? Only continually monitoring the data will give us some idea. Gottfried's Charts may give us some
indication. But, if I recall correctly, all of us old timer got
caught when the sell off occurred.
Teri, was the only one which called it accurately.
Teri, what are your thoughts?
For your information I have included my RS/Price data comparing 1996
97 with our current up turn.
R/S PRICE R/S PRICE
vrs
PRESPLIT 2 for 1 PSTSPLT
Mnth 96/97 96/97 vrs 98/99 98/99
7/96 <10 22-25 vrs 20-54 29-34
8/96 <10 23-27 vrs 38-56 25-37
9/96 11-15 24-30 vrs 38-50 23-27
10/96 11-27 26-30 vrs 40-65 22-36
11/96 15-79 27-40 vrs 62-86 33-43
12/96 60-87 35-40 vrs 92-96 38-47
1/97 65-94 36-49 vrs
2/97 90-95 41-55 vrs
3/97 94-95 44-54 vrs
4/97 94-96 45-55 vrs
5/97 95-97 56-72 vrs
6/97 95-97 58-75 vrs
7/97 95-97 74-95 vrs
8/97 96-99 89-108 vrs
Paul V.
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