AMD: A thread for real AMD investors not nit-picking twits Message Board

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Technology Stocks : AMD: A thread for real AMD investors not nit-picking twits

AMD 256.12

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Oct 31 9:30 AM EST

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To: DRBES who wrote (134)	12/24/1998 7:46:00 PM
From: Brian Hutcheson	of 254

DRBES , re. estimates I have been recording the lowest prices on Pricewatch since mid august. It appears Q4 is different in the following way. in Q3 the 300mhz was the main seller , in Q4 the 350 mhz took its place . The average over the last 6 weeks of each quarter on the quoted pricewatch lowest price appears to be about $7 higher in Q4 than Q3. The 350 mhz price also seemed to hold up until just 2 weeks ago and only since then has dropped . Also on the 25 Aug there was only one clock speed higher (333mhz) As of 27 nov there were 3 speed versions higher (366,380,400) Of these the 366 has been present in local stores since Oct in the HP models . Therefore I believe that K6-2 ASPs could be 5-10% higher this quarter. If AMD ships 5M+ K6-2 this quarter at $110 ASP that would give revenue of $550M or approx $850M total . Enough to give EPS of 40c if the break even is $760M and they have rest of business at $300M revenue. If the ASP is $105 then they could make 30 cents EPS Also if AMD ships more than 5M k6-2 then add to those eps AMD went from q2 at -45 cents to Q3 1 cent , to Q4 40c ? Brian Brian

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