Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 260.22

+0.4%

Dec 23 3:59 PM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (27420)	12/25/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Paul, Maybe these charts will give a better perspective of AMAT's historical price movements. Shown are monthly and weekly (180 data points) price points vs time, MACD, RS, Stochastics, and momentum with the short term and long term moving averages included. iqc.com iqc.com IMO, the monthly price is in an upward trend based on a market perception that the semi industry is strengthening and buyers are willing to pay a premium for an anticipated share price of $60+ within 9-18 months. Given the recent elation of apparent increasing chip orders the equipment makers are benefiting even though anticipated sales and earnings for most of them are relatively flat going forward. The competition to secure new orders will cost more from a marketing and sales perspective as special "incentives" are factored in to lure prospective customers away from the competition. This may have the short/mid term effect of lowering margins in order to generate increased sales. Better to have part of the pie than to not have any at all. Competition will be cut-throat amongst the equipment providers, special "deals" and package/warranty incentives will benefit the chip companies well and these companies will be in a position to bargain/negotiate with substantial leverage to get the best price. The chip companies have the upper hand and are dealing the cards, IMO. Equipment that can maintain the highest thruput (production output) with the highest yields and the best cost effective technology, with the lowest cost per wafer (along with the most factory/service/parts support)will capture the most new orders. The niche technology companies are ripe for acquisition as they don't have the resources or financial ability to compete in this environment against the cash rich "gorillas". Better to be absorbed/acquired than go under, sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. Just my opinion, BB

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