This is from another baord and is interesting:
Glenn, I copied the following from another board. Thought you might find it interesting. I do believe (after sustaining meaningful losses) that it really is about one thing only: FLOAT. Good luck and hope your Holidays are enjoyable.
<<I just don't understand how long it will take the board members here to realize that you suffer a mathematical impossibility in trying to short this stock. Stop wasting time trying to figure out the business possibilities of Amazon. Forget the business, people, Amazon is an investment bank's creation. And it is a stock that resembles
all the others in the here and now internet/high growth fields.
Goldman Sachs and family (more specifically, DMG here) have instructed their clients (Mr. Bezos here) that they will make incalculable profits for them, if the clients agree to a set of conditions: float less than forty percent of the stock, market the company massively, sell drips of stock and recover the lost shares through options, ramp the revenues, forget about profits, and by all means if we need to lend your stock we will do so. In return, you
Mr. Bezos will guarantee us your investment banking fees, and you will deposit with our high net worth group all of your money.
We in turn will advertise this stock massively, even highlighting the massive losses you incur. We will subtly encourage massive short positions. When we see the short position approach 50% of the float, we will simply not lend any more stock, and indeed insist that most everyone cover. As they cover, we will insist that you begin to release a steady drumbeat of news releases, which in reality don't mean that much, but in this day and time, mean
everything. To add a little oxygen to the fire, we will lend again after the stock price rises, thus encouraging an even larger short position, however with our prior profits on lending, covering, and appreciating, we will create separate balance sheet vehicles to squeeze the aggregate short again, and again, and again. We, the investment bank, have NO downside, while YOU, the short, can not win. Like Arnold in the Terminator, it will be back every
time. It is a natural fact, proven by the quants at the shops I am referring to. A short can not win in Amazon for now, while inflation and interest rates are low...
I sign off with two warnings. DO NOT SHORT this stock, no matter how tempting. DO NOT GO LONG this stock, no matter how tempting. The risk profile is too large, even for the most seasoned and capitalized investor. IMO, Amazon should be about a $40 stock. It will get there if the economy and inflation have some issues down the road.
Happy hunting for other investments. >> |
