Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: BigBull who wrote (33556)	12/26/1998 9:08:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

re: Abbey Cohen comments - I raise my Jan effect #'s to + 25% In all seriousness; this may just be too easy... Will it really turn out to be a ''textbook 1-2-3'' classic contrarian play here ? Simply buy into the convenient triple bottom during tax loss selling here of late; and wait for the January rush of tax loss sellers turning into buyers; sector rotation off of comments from the likes of Abbey Cohen, the Forbes ''Rockefeller'' article, Barons recent positive comments on the 'patch etc. and short covering off of the MO-MO money that will follow the tax loss sellers returning and the new money coming via all the analysts that have suddenly re-discoverd contrarian/value investing... 25% may be conservative; look to last January's run to the May highs, let alone the 2 30-50% run ups we had off of the Sept & Oct selloffs. 50% here could happen easily from the tax loss sellers returning which will trigger short covering; and when investors see the pop (during the cold winter) from this initial move - then the MO-MO money may join in. If it does; and I think it will play out just in that order; if we have a cold January and crude is moving upward and/or if any positive ''expectations'' of new additional cuts from OPEC are forthcoming; we could finally have a permanent move to OSX 72-75 by early February and then it will be the price of Crude and earnings performance that will move us forward. I still say OSX 85-90 by the 4th of July and all we will need is the ''trend'' moving toward the expectation of $15 Crude Oil by Q3 1999. The overall market is so pricey that the Oilpatch will start sticking out like a sore thumb here shortly. We will make a major move here as soon as the Street senses there is not a ''dead-money'' risk. The January ''play'' will at the very least be a great trading opportunity for anyone who bought into the December tax loss selling. The likes of Abbey Cohen and the talking heads on CNBC will determine if this will be the one that sticks... The confluence of events is converging upon the 'Patch - it's put up or shut up time imho. One will either be on-board, or miss the train. The engines are firing up, the whistle has sounded and the crowds are forming... got your ticket ? Because as we have learned on the last 2 runs; once one hears the wheels turning - it's too late...

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